It's not that much to assume. If Shelly would not have flipped, it would have been J/J/A/S...alll playing for J/J to go to the end. The otherside would have been K/P. In that situation, even with P being HOH, the J/J side would control who went home. The odds would have been almost 100% that J/J would be F3. Her best move was to quit playing for J/J and play for herself. I am not a Shelly fan, I was for D/K and now K, but I will say to Shelly, WELCOME TO THE PARTY (the evil side, the coven, the wicked witches, the bitches, the WINNERS!!!!!).