When will Sov. split?

[dodos43]

If the Sov. keep winning as they have been, it could ultimatley mean that they could be the final 4. The question is, will any of them turn on each other before the final four? Will James conspire with Danielle to vote out Janelle behind her back? Or will Janelle use Marcellus to take out James? Can Howie talk Chicken George into putting up Kaysar? Each member of the sov. have a floater they seem to be playing with on the side (well maybe not Howie (w/ CG), or Kaysar (w/Erika), but Janelle (marc.) and James (danielle) definatley do.

Or, have they learned from last year and understand that to even have a chance for the end, they have to stick together as the nerd herd did last year? An alliance of 4 may not get all 4 members to the final four, but each individual member has a better chance of getting to the final 4if they are in an alliance of 4 (make sense

So the question is, will one of them pull the rip cord and get another sov. out before the final 4, or will they stick together to the end? Of course, this could be all moot if Will or Boogie (whoever makes it thru the week) gets an HOH next week and takes out a member of the Sov. ('cus at this point, none of the floaters have the guts to put one of them up in the hopes that they will have a chance to somehow convince one of the 4 to go with them to the end).

I know a lot of people have said this season is boring, but man, strategically, it has been brilliant so far.

[Marty]

Well, yes at some point they have to play the game. There is only one winner. Whatever the outcome I am sure they respect each other for playing the game and will remain friends.

[Tarman12]

If anybody is going to jump ship, it will be James. The other three are tight. And James has no reason to jump ship as long as they have the numbers in their favor.

[BoneJones00]

You said it Tarman...if anyone jumps ship first, it will be James.

[samg]

Dodos: I was thinking the same thing: Jan and Marci, Howie and CG, K and E, James and Dani. NOt that any of these (except the last) is really an alliance/agreement/understanding yet, but I see a picture of the Sov3+1 connected via a square, and each of them having one floater outside the SOv on their side of the square, pulling them in that direction.

So the question is at what point one of those pulls becomes stronger than the square.

And I think the answer is "at the point where the Sov has a better chance w/ her/his floater AND whatever flotsam remains in the house than s/he does with the Sovs."

The thing is, if one Sov leaves the alliance and as a result one Sov is evicted, that leaves just 2 HGs in "the Sovs". And while that SEEMS to mean that if a Sov has just one non-Sov s/he can trust, their new alliance will be as strong as the remaining Sovs, it won't be as safe as an alliance of FOUR.

If all 4 Sovs make final 7 (they're aready final 10), it's odds-on that the final 2 are both Sovs (since they're superior comp players and if they win either F7 or F6 HOH they control who goes, and leave themselves with either a 4-2 or 3-2 majority against the weakest comp players (assuming they vote out the strongest comp players each time.)

I don't think ANYone will defect while one of the Sov3 is HOH. At first I thought James might desert the first time he won HOH at or after final 8, if he thought he could lead an alliance of 5 against the 3 remianing Sovs. But I think he'll realize that if he does that he loses all 3 Sov votes on the jury AND the vote of the first person evicted from the 5 alliance, so there's not much upside to such a move. Better chance is to ingratiate himself with non-Sovs and play for F2, hoping for one floater vote (Dani and/or Diane) which with the 3 Sovs' votes (assuming none of them is also F2) gives him the $.

[uvp]

james is the only hope. but even him i think lacks guts now to switch. only way i see a split is for a non sov to win hoh and put up james with janelle or kaysar. the other two will lobby against james and he'll get piss like always and call it quits. this is the only way they split. this remind me of last season with april who was clearly the odd person in their group but she wouldnt split for nothing. james is mixing friendship with 500,000 and i dont see him splitting unless he gets put on the block and sov lobby against him which they will do.

[Oyabungaijin]

The SOV will become SOF(t) once they lose HOH. Until then, they are as tight as a Rhino horn stuck in a Trumpet, and for good reason.

[KoKo33]

I know having a tight alliance is good at first but where does it get you in the end? Only one can win. Last season I hated Ivette, but then ended up feeling bad for her when it was down to her, Maggie, and Janelle. She realized she had no possible way of winning. Seems like her loyalty to "the friendship" got her nowhere.

[cindyannie]

I don't think they will split before unless they lose HOH soon. Then one will get picked off. My guess is James or Janelle. But the bb6 are very tight. They still have some fear of James choosing Danielle over them at some point but not now.

[dodos43]

Interesting that Janelle won't nominate Marcellus and James won't vote out Danielle. I wonder when they will figure it out that each has an outside alliance that they will use to dump the others and go to the finals with.