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Strategy Talk


johnnyiiii
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I'm new to Morty's, new to live feeds, but a fan of BB for 5 years. I've been following Eric, trying to guess his strategy as he plays the game having to account not only for the game but for America's choices too.

I think I know what he will do and why. I was curious to see some of the thoughts others might have as well.

Pick a player, what they might do and why, or just bash mine (lol). So here goes:

Eric has been putting it out for weeks, to all the other hgs, that with 5 left, winning HOH means you can't compete with 4 left, and that HoH (with 4 hgs left), along with POV winner are the only 2 guaranteed safe people. He wants people to value HOH (4) so highly, that they don't try too hard (or throw it) in HOH (5) - in order to be able compete in 4. This might be true in most situations, but if indeed 2 pairs (d&d, e&j) are in final 4, HOH DOESN'T MATTER! Whichever pair wins POV (week 4) can save his/her "team of 2" and put them both in final 3.....and a 2 to 1 chance for final 2. He also knows about d&d's popularity with America and all of the accompanying nom, pov and voting AP task ramifications to his game. This is why he teamed up with d&d and will fight to keep the "little julie chen" alliance alive - to play out this scenerio and win the game. And yes, I happen to think he will win the game (only Danielle winning tonight could stop this, and only if she betrays the "LJC")

Summary:

For tonight's HOH (6 hgs left), Eric will throw it (as usual) and take his chances next week with the noms and veto comp and his manipulative abilities.

For the next HOH (5 hgs left), Eric will win at all costs (or make sure Jess does), it's the only chance to guarantee both him and Jess in final 4

Next HOH (4 hgs left), Eric doesn't care who wins HOH, the only thing that matters this week is POV

Final HOH (3 hgs left), Eric wants him or Jess to win and take the other to final 2

JMHO

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The strategy I expect to see Eric undertake is a bit different than yours. I don't think he throws this HOH at all. Every other houseguest could potentially be gunning for him this week. He doesn't trust Dick & Dani that far. Who knows what Zach will be thinking after all this. Eric is going to play hard for HOH this week.

If he wins it I expect him to go into full go team! mode with Dick & Dani. That will prevent America from screwing him over on nominations and making him put up Jessica. Then I'd expect a veto play and the backdooring of Danielle. Thus taking advantage of the timeframe from veto to ceremony and the inability of America to interfere.

If Zach wins HOH this week I think he tows the line and puts up Jameka and probably Jessica as a pawn. At least that's what he'll say to her face. Eric better damn well win veto if they don't want to be split up.

Dick or Dani I would expect to talk a lot about screwing Eric & Jess over but, in the end, honor their agreement. Zach and Jameka up.

I couldn't even begin to comprehend what the hell Jameka is thinking...

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I'll bet you guys play chess too, hey?

Both your analyses are admirable and certainly well considered. It's just too much for my brain and way too much like work for me to climb into the discussion. A simple girl at heart - I'm happy with my beer, chips, and the lighter stuff of the Morty-boards.

I will say this, tho. After reading your posts I've decided that watching how well Eric goes all-out tonight should give me a pretty good indication of how well he might play next week. And if he throws it, I think he could be finished - so I'm doubting he'll do that.

And I sure would be interested in what people think Dani (alone) has planned.

This was fun, thanks.

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The easiest way to predict the houseguests future moves is to simply look back at their past moves.

Take Dick for example. Everything is for personal reasons. He may regret it now but Nick went because he wanted to screw his daughter and he needed her head in the game, not laying in bed with him all day. Kail went for her past moves against Dick. Dustin went because he had made a deal to oust Dick at one point. Jen went because Dick hated her. He has never made a move for strategic reasons that didn't involve personal feelings.

So that is why I predict he won't strike first against Eric and Jess. I mean, really, he came at Eric first and probably considers the past problems forgiven. Eric has never "turned on him" so to speak, unlike Amber or Jameka. So I just don't see him putting up Eric or Jess so long as Zach, Amber, or Jameka are still in the house.

Eric, most of his moves have been calculated with less emotion. But I still don't see him turning on the "team" because of fear of America's wrath. Again, his only move will be a Veto play because he can execute it without our interference.

Danielle is the wild card because I believe she will execute a doublecross if she gets the chance. I just feel she's sick of her dad and isn't going to worry about ruffling feathers because she thinks her dad will take the lions share of blame. She also rightfully knows that she'd probably have the votes of Zach and Jameka to keep her over her father if she gets put up for a screwjob on Eric or Jess. To me she is the wildcard because I don't think she'll fear tearing the "team" apart.

Zach, sheesh, who knows. He has played the "side with the HOH week by week" strategy to perfection, making it this far, but it's about at an end. I could see him do something calculated though. There just has to be more game in him than he's showing. Something crazy like putting up Eric and Dick. Which would essentially leave the decision up to Jameka. A short speech about how he's noticed her have everyone she liked ripped away from her by these peoples actions, and he can relate to how his side was torn down. So he wants to see them squirm and have to kiss her butt.

Jessica of course can't play. Neither can Jameka.

Regardless it should be an interesting week.

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Hello all,

One thing i found interesting in trying to predict a players strategy is the constant negative energy that is put out by the message boards and by the players themselves about an alliance actually holding. That is, Eric and Dick made an alliance to get the four of them to the final five and with those numbers and odds, hopefully to the final four and then whatever happens, happens. The message boards are filled with people who hate that the show will just be this plan happening. They constantly say, and the players themselves constantly doubt ,whether it is time to blow up this alliance. I understand making a change in the flow of the game to give yourself a clear advantage. There has not been anything like that happening in the 2 weeks since the alliance was formed and either side that intentionally breaks the plan will not benefit from it. You cannot let Jameeka play in an HOH and possibly win, You certainly cannot let Zach have more than a 1 in 3 chance to win HOH and you cant let the numbers of people outside the alliance outnumber those in it, even if 2 from the LJC are nominated. Eric has to play with one eye on America and one eye on Jessica and he still has put them into a position that even if Danielle tries to go after them, he has a backup plan to unite the other HG's against dick and Danielle. Dick seems fine with final four and let the best man/woman win, Eric i think is fine also-especially with the AC interference....Its Ironic that the truly cuthroat players are the two women who cannot wait to get rid of each other, even if it makes sense to get rid of the people you know you do NOT want in the final 2.

I understand that the show is definitely more boring when a plan is formed and stuck to, I know there is more drama when it is back-stabbing after hate filled speech after doublecross...but lets face it...for as crass as Dick is and as moody as danielle is, you have sleazy Eric and sweet faced assasin Jessica and they all are actually smart players who have understood that your trying to get to the final 2 and their best opportunity is with each other...UNLESS there is a clear advantage not too :animated_scratchchin:

My 2 cents,

Lara

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In looking at the remaining players (sans Amber), they have to be thinking about who they want to take the the final 2. As polite as it sounds, NO ONE is thinking, "If not me, these are the two people I would like to see in the final 2."

For this HOH and for future BB seasons, I would like to see the HOH and luxury comps combined. That way, you can always find out who really trusts who. That and everyone would get to play for prizes.

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Alright, I changed my mind.........jk (though Francis might be right about eric only throwing hoh to dick........I still think he wants to win at 5)

Anyone else think the producers might be waiting til Eric wins HOH for a Double Eviction - hence no AP affecting his noms?

(Katy - lol - no, no chess for me. Just a little obsessed in my first live feed year. Oh, and I must say, love your live feed updates, esp. your eds)

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(I started writing this as strategy thing, but has definitely turned into a what-I-want-to-happen thing.)

This is all from Erics point of view and assuming that Amber leaves tonight.

First, what should have been done this week, if Eric and Jess really wanted to break the alliance with Dick and Dani (which I dont think they do...yet). After nominating Zach and Amber, they should have found a way to throw POV to Jam. She would have removed Amber and Jess would have had no choice but to nom Dick or Dani. With Jam and Amber voting together, Eric and one of the D's voting together, Jess breaking the tie, the other D could have been leaving tonight. Ah, hindsight...

In the HOH reign that starts tonight, if Eric or Dick wins HOH tonight, Jam and Zach will be nominated, thereby verifying the DDEJ alliance. Dick, Eric or Jess needs to win POV and leave the noms as is. If Dani or Zach wins either HOH or POV, or if Jam wins POV, Jess and Eric are screwed and one of them will be leaving next. If Jam and Zach are still on the block come eviction time, Zach will go home because there will still be one more HOH that Jam cant compete in.

Next HOH (assuming Zach is gone), only three HGs will be competeing, DDEJ minus which ever one was the previous HOH. I think Eric will fight like hell for this HOH and like someone said earlier is trying to convice everyone that they dont want this HOH. Not sure how noms will go. No one really knows for sure if America gets to pick one or both noms. Ideally, Jam and one of the D's will go up. Jess, Jam or Eric need to win POV in order for Eric and Jess to stay safe. If Dick or Dani wins and comes off of the block Eric has no choice but to nom Jess and D&D will vote Jess out. If noms stay the same, Jam will go home.

In the penultimate HOH (assuming Jam is gone), only real benefit to winning this HOH is guaranteed final 3. All of the power is in the hands of the POV winner. They decide who stays and who goes. Eric will fight like hell for this POV. If either D is on the block, they will be leaving. Ideally, Jess wins HOH and Eric wins POV. Dani will be voted out because the first phase of the final HOH is endurance and no one will want to go up against her.

In the final HOH (assuming Dani is gone), the first part is endurance, against Jess, Dick and Eric dont stand a chance. Jess will move on to third phase of HOH. Second phase, no matter what it is Eric needs to win it. He and Jess compete in third phase, which is usually trivia, and Eric will win. Here is where he proves if he has been playing Jess. If he takes Dick to final two (turning Jess into Erica2.0), then he is in it for the money and will end up in second place. If he takes Jess to the final two, they get married an spilt over $600,000.

WOW, my head hurts...

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