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Who is the Frontrunner as of Now?


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The only person I'm sure of is Erika NOT being the frontrunner because as you may have heard, Erika is not getting Danielle's vote :P

I worked out in another thread somewhere that since Janelle will likely win HOH next (since she's only competing against George and Chilltown), that the only 2 people likely to go are George or Erika since they don't have the votes to evict Chilltown (?) If Erika wins POV then George likely goes home (odds then favoring Erika to win HOH in final 4 with Janelle winning POV - Boogie getting evicted). If Erika doesn't win POV and she gets evicted next, then Will or Boogie will likely be next HOH after that and if Janelle wins POV then George will get evicted (?)

This is IF Janelle does not turn on Chilltown (and I don't think she will unless forced to in final 3). So if the odds on favorites win the competitions as expected, then final 3 should either be Janelle/Will/Erika or Janelle/Will/Boogie. I think Janelle's got great chances of making the final 2, but only 50% chance of winning (?) Will's only got 50% chance of making final 2 but great chances of winning (?) Erika and Boogie both have 50% shots at making final 2 but have slim chances of winning (?)

So if the people who seem like they'd most likely win the next bunch of competitions actually do, then Janelle and Will seem like they'd have a 50/50 chance of making final 2 and actually winning (?) But then I guess anything can happen, eh? :)

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Janelle could be sitting alone in the final one & she wouldn't get enough Jury votes to win. If CT were smart they would try to push Will to final 2 but you can tell Boogie wants to be the one sitting there. Will is clearly the man you want charming the jury not Boogie but I think it's a male ego thing & Boogie thinks it's his turn since Will already won once.

If Will makes it to final 2 he will win hands down since I think the jury will award the moolah to the best gameplay not the best sob story :D

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Janelle can increase her chances of winning by winning the next HOH and instead of putting up Erika and George, putting up Erika and Boogie. Unless one of them wins POV, only Will and Janelle would vote. The vote would be 1-1, and Janelle would break it by evicting Boogie.

The following week, Janelle wouldn't be playing for HOH, and it would be Will, Erika, and George. If Will wins, he puts up Erika and George. If George wins, he puts up Will and Erika. If Erika wins, Will and Janelle go up. And George would be the only vote. He'd vote out Will, and the final 3 would be Janelle, Erika, and George.

Everything gets all screwed up if somebody besides HOH wins the final 4 veto.

In the final 3 HOH, it's a showdown between Erika and Janelle. I think Janelle wins 2 of the 3 parts, becomes HOH, and it doesn't much matter who she goes to final 2 with, since she beats both of them, imo.

The problem is that Janelle plays a week-to-week game and won't be able to see beyond the fact that Erika will probably leave next week, so she'll vote her out. Unless George wins final 3 HOH, she will have served her purpose, and either Will or Boogie will put up her and George, and then she'll have to win a veto.

I have a headache. When I think this hard it hurts my brain.

That should have read "unless George wins final 4 HOH" {the one Janelle can't play in}.

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these three have no chance of winning unless they with each other ericka, cg, boogie

my thoughts with rank of these three who is more likely to win is:

1. cg

2. boogie

3. ericka

now i think of it the cg vs bogie final could go either way

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I just don't understand Janelle. How could she NOT KNOW ct is playing her, and that she better make a move to get rid of CT if she wins HOH. Seriously, is she that stupid or does she just not care about the money.

Agree......its time to split CT up...both of them....see how that plays out. If Janelle is smart she wouldn't put up Erika,cause serious.....who would vote for Erika at this point!!

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If Janelle could get George on her side...more so then he's with Erika...then she shoudl throw HOH. She's safe with everyone playing. She SHOLD however, fight HARD for the veto, because it's too close and ALL vetos should be played to win. If say Will wins HOH, nominates Erika & CG...she could win veto..if I were her I'd then use it to save george & vote Boogie out. Of course ther ewould have to be a deal between that they would come after me. Of course janie could then tell will :I got rid of boogie so I coul dhave you all to myself...just like he did to her. Will would respect it too.

but of course will would never win an HOH. I don't think Boogie would nominate Erika. He'd probably nominate Janelle & CG. If Janelle won POV he'd put erika up & they'd send her home.

I think CG would def nominate CT. I believe that Janie would fight like hell for he veto to save herself & will. Question is...would she save boogie? It would be erika & boogie on the block.

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Janelle can increase her chances of winning by winning the next HOH and instead of putting up Erika and George, putting up Erika and Boogie. Unless one of them wins POV, only Will and Janelle would vote. The vote would be 1-1, and Janelle would break it by evicting Boogie.

I agree (but it would be Will and George voting!). I think she might do that too, because she won't nominate Will and I think she would keep George back for a veto replacement if needed.

In the final 2, Will beats any of them. He has outsmarted and outplayed them all.

I agree with this too!

Either way, Thursday night is going to be exciting!

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In Janelle's DR's she always says she is going after chilltown. So I think she's just waiting to make her move. I still don't understand though why Dani Erika and Janelle and George didn't think to get together and get rid of chilltown. They could have done it this week. What is wrong with these people?

Does anyone else think the knot in the rope is Erika because she is dating Mike and so does what he wants? Because if she is then she is really stupid and doesn't deserve to move on.

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QUOTE

Janelle can increase her chances of winning by winning the next HOH and instead of putting up Erika and George, putting up Erika and Boogie. Unless one of them wins POV, only Will and Janelle would vote. The vote would be 1-1, and Janelle would break it by evicting Boogie.

I agree (but it would be Will and George voting!). I think she might do that too, because she won't nominate Will and I think she would keep George back for a veto replacement if needed.

Whomever wins the first HOH this coming Thursday better have their thinking cap on. It's a very important set of nominations and evictions and it's all going to happen lightning fast. :lol:

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I suspect J. realizes that if F3 is her and CT they will both take each other to F2, so I don't think she wants that )I hope she remembers the last time she was in F3 with two allies!)

To avoid it she must send MB home in one of the next two weeks.

If J. wins F5 HoH I expect her to put up E. and MB. - it will be time for her to "make her move" - and after the 1-1 vote (if no one is removed) she can evict MB.

If MB wins veto she can put up W. ("you're just a pawn, honey") and still send E. home.

And if E. won PoV she could do the same thing and evict MB.

But does she have what it takes to EVER put Will on the block? (She should, since he's her biggest competition in the jury vote!) And I WANT to belive there may even be a SMALL chance that she'll go after Will! THAT would make her "the best player" this season, imo.

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Both she and Erika are keeping Chilltown because of the promise to split the money. They probably feel if they are the last 3 (Janelle and Erika don't know that they each have a "deal") with Chilltown, everything stands and they go home with over 100 grand no matter where they finish.

They don't talk openly about the split anymore because BB warned them about that (based on conversations where the women try to bring it up and the boys stop them).

This whole thing has spoiled the game for me. I don't care who wins, but I can't wait to see what happens post show when the winner may want to rethink the deal.

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I haven't heard that BB warned them about talk of a money split. I have heard the opposite, that BB left out the "it's illegal to talk of splitting the pize money" out of the contract this year. I think the reason CT has quit talking about splitting the money is because now they realize that they don't need to offer a split because they are really close to making it on their own.

As far as I know CT hasn't made an official deal w/Jan or Erika to spilt the money. All they have done is dangle the promise to finalize a money split when it gets down to 3 or 4 HG. IMO once CT is in the final 3 or 4 they will never finalize that deal ;)

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Chicken George is the front runner.

Dani should be gone this week.

That leaves Jani and Erika and Chilltown. They all think they have alliances with each other - so will be voting out each other .... leaving George looking pretty.

You have to admit - he has gotten far in this game by not having an alliance and living mostly on slop - very dedicated!!!

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I too would love to see CG win HOH this week. I hope he would put up CT. I think CG is wonderful, however, front runner, I personally do not think so. Howie will not vote for CG and neither will James, the only way Marcellas would vote for CG would be if one of CT is against him, Danielle has said from day one, she will vote for the best player, I just do not see her vote going to "Chicken George". I think Erika is in the same boat.

I actually think there are two Will & Janelle. If they go to F2 together, I think it will be a tough decision for the jury. If Will & Janelle go with anyone but each other, I think they would win.

Last but least is Boogie, he will not win period. It doesn't matter who he goes up against in F2.

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i think george is smart enough to get CT out if he won HOH.

But I think if janie wins her best bet it to put up both of CT. If she puts up boggie & erika if will wins POV, which I think he will actually try 2 win he will take boggie off then CT will be in the house another week, & will prob win HOH & send janie packing.

The only downside of putting CT up is if erika wins she may save boggie, but after she scumbagged dani u never know what she will do.

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Let's see. If Janelle is in the final two you know she has Howie's vote, probably Marcellas' vote, probably James' vote, Danielle's vote (unless she's there with George), Will or Boogie's vote (unless she is up there with someone from CT), and probably George's vote, even if she is up there with Erika. Janelle's chances of winning and having a lot of votes from the jury, regardless of who's in there, are very good.

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Marcellas told Julie that if he had the chance, he probably wouldn't put up Janelle, regardless of what he said, she said, and the house said. They're friends outside of the house, and he probably would support her if she's in the final two. Plus, who else in that house would he vote for? If anyone else, probably Erika, but against Janelle, probably her.

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