realitea Player Standings End of Week 1

[BigBrotherHBIC]

July 6-Pre-Eviction

 

Welcome to RealiTea Bites the blog where I spill all the tea on what’s happening in the Big Brother house.  Tonight is eviction night and this first week of Big Brother 19 has easily ben the most insane first week in BB history.  The game for fans began with a powerful alliance 9 people strong:  Cody, Jessica, Mark, Elena, Matt, Raven, Dominique, Paul, and Christmas.  This isn’t unusual since by the time the feeds go live for fans relationships have already been established and a myriad of alliances are already formed.  What is different about this cast is by the end of week one the house has been blown up and the cards land where they may. 

 

Cody’s power move blew up all the relationships in the house including dividing the power alliance and we are delivered a piping hot fresh pot of tea as we see the players scrambling to find a new group and running or safety.  Let’s break down how I see each player navigating the game and the most explosive first week!

 

Cody was HOH and while most of us wouldn’t choose to be the first HOH he followed his preseason play book and took the first HOH comp.  Once Megan leaves the game unexpectedly things quickly change.  Let’s be real here, Paul was ALWAYS Cody’s target.  Cody’s intention was to backdoor Paul from the minute Paul didn’t give him a friendship bracelet, maybe even frorm the second he came through the doors. To some casual fans it may seem like a good idea if you are 3 showmances already in full swing by the time we enter the house.  I mean Cody has the numbers right?  WRONG!  The couples have all have aligned together with several other players by the end of the second night.  The problem is his target was always one of the people everyone in his group believed was on their team, namely Paul!

 

Cody is blowing in the wind by the end of this week.  Alex may seem like she’s willing to  work with him but if you watch the feeds you know this is smoke and mirrors.  Alex wants to save Jillian so of course she would agree to collaborate with her enemies to eliminate Christmas and save her own ally.  Once the vote is over Alex has her eyes set on Jessica and Cody.  At the moment anyway.  Jillian is a number for Alex. Cody is emotionless, simple minded, and egocentric.  As I suspected he is rigid, inflexible, and has no social skills at all. 

 

Does this mean the house will target Cody next week?  Not so fast my friends.  The realiTea is that Alex’s side of the house wants Cody gone.  Alex wants Jessica gone more than Cody, but that’s personal not game.  Fortunately, for her the two may align. Let’s not brew next week’s tea when there is so much to sip and nibble on this week.   Cody’s side of the house wants Cody gone.  Christmas wants Jesica and Cody gone and has made no secret about it.  If the house is smart and stays focused on this threat they will throw Cody and Jesica on the block, pull Cody down and send Jessica home.  Cody can’t survive long without Jessica.  Jessica has enough sense about her to figureout a way to blend back in and rally a group to allow her to reitergate and will seem far more appealing to work with once Cody exits the house.  

 

Jessica is smart in the sense she understands the game and how you do things is just as important as what you do.  However, when the house shake up happens she locks herself away with Cody and fails to adjust her game to survive the aftermath.  Jessica does try to make it appear she is willing to work with Alex after days and days of lashing out at her, calling her names and delivering daily death stares directed at Alex.  Jessica’s jealousy and desire to have all of Cody’s attention leaves her on the side of the road and I expect her to be preverbal road kill soon.  Eliminating Jessica is the smarter move for everyone but most of all for Alex.  We all know Cody is obsessed with Alex, whatever the reasoning and if Jessica is sent out then Alex, if she plays her cards correctly could pull Cody over to her side.  I don’t see her intentionally planning this approach but she should!  I was thrilled when Alex won the comp, and she is high on my rankings for the season but now that we are in the game there are some warning signs.  You can be strong and smart without putting people off.  Alex would be smart to dial back her overbearing temperament and not react so emotionally.  While she isn’t anyone’s target but Jessica everything you do in this house leaves a fingerprint and she’s gotten her hands very dirty with her actions.  Chill out girlie.  You aren’t in danger at the moment, Jillian, while a number for you is not a shield for you and you are spending capital you can’t afford to waste on her.  Don’t get into a pissing contest with Cody, it’s not a good look and it won’t help your long term game.  

 

Jillian is on the block and as Cody would say she has been playing victim all week.  She tells us she's been on the block 3 times and is constantly begging the live feed cameras pleading with America to feel bad for her and send her a temptation.  Um, she’s been OTB the block twice.  She’s done this so often that the camera’s started turning away from her every time she does it.  I wasn’t as irritated as some fans with her lack of campaigning.  Look at all this big personalities in the house and all the drama going on.  Christmas blowing up, Cody pushing buttons, Ramses running from room to room listening in on every chat.  Often in these scenarios hanging back and blending in is a smart play.  The problem is she may not be campaigning but she is actively doing things that are drawing attention.  Paul isn’t the only one to observe that she is running information up to Cody like a carrier pigeon.  She and Ramses both are getting information and running back to the other side and spilling tea.  This is an approach that requires a very mature and wise player.  It has to be done in a way that: 1. Isn't obvious to everyone else 2. Includes you in the talks where people see you as an asset and solicit your input.  Neither of which is happening with either of these two players and that’s a problem.  A more immediate one for Jillian since she’s OTB. Jilia has invested all her energy into Alex and Cody and this could be her most critical error.  One that sends her out the door tonight. That’s lucky for Cameron who we’ve herd nothing from in the outside world so one has to believe he is in sequester somewhere waiting for a chance to re-enter the game.  I hope he does!  

 

Ramses may have been ranked higher on my preseason predictions but his age is both a positive and a negative.  He has formed a strong friendship with Elena, and was in the ‘know’ with Alex’s group but his desire to plant seeds and cause divides doesn’t balance with his skill set to do so effectively without having his hand prints all over it.  One problme here too is that Elena has a target on her back that Domininique has drawn after a lot of shaking of the trees so to speak.  Ramses does create some doubt in Elena’s mind about Mark. Marrk is loayl to both Elena and dom but…not simultaneously.  These two girls need to stop all of this and in the short term work together with Mark.  There is strength in numbers.  Instead they are treating him like a Stretch Armstrong doll.  This is the biggest shift from Veto to eviction night.  Mark and Elena were seen as a duo and now they have been fussing and fighting over some efforts by Ramses and Dominique on the Mark side of things.  Ramses needs to participate more.  He needs to talk and interact.  Definitely listen more than you speak but you need to be a part of the conversations not just a fly on the wall because someone will swat you.

 

Dominique is the break out star of the week in my book. I have been surprisingly impressed with Elena on many levels but she can be very hot or cold while Dom is steady Betty 99% of the time. Dom was brought into the fold with the showmances.  She established a very strong personal connection with Mark and most of the ladies in that group engage her in conversations both casual and game play.  She has blended in beautifully and has the balance I was describing earlier about listening more than talking but doing so as a part of the conversations happening in most corners of the house.  My only advice is she needs to stop pushing for Mark to listen to her about Elena and be a bit more subtle about how she delivers the thinking points related to this for Mark. She also needs to find a common interest with Alex.  She managed to find it with Jason who is the exact opposite of her so I have faith that she can, but it requires some active play and not passive in this area.  You may not need her now, but you may down the road so find something you two connect on and build on that.  I know she was coming off very passive aggressive when the whole banner topic came about.  It didn’t help there was some holiday bubbly involved that night.  Ironically, Ramses was trying to create the doubt about Mark in Elena’s mind while Dom was doing the same about Elena in Mark’s mind. 

 

Jason is the one who I still don’t feel like I completely understand.  He’s smart and funny but plays dumb a lot.  Yes, I am giving him credit that most of the time he is playing.  He does say too much but has found himself in a position where both sides of this eviction vote are seeking him out.  That’s a place you want to be.  People coming to you and vying for your vote.  I caution him to heed my warning, talk less.  Jason rambles on and ends up leaving people scratching their heads trying to figure out what the heck his point was.  Chill out.  By tonight you will have to pick a side and be ready to ride that ride until it ends.  He could take a few notes on how Kevin manages this.

 

Josh is by far the most improved character since night 1 of the show.  He came in loud, aggressive, and emotional.  He should have been the week 1 target/pawn but that terrible safety move was critical to his survival and allowed him time to settleinto the game.  Slowly he calmed down and relaxed quite a bit over the last week.  Believe it or not he could be the swing vote tonight.  I expect him to be a basket case by the time the live vote happens, but baseed on all I have seen I have faith he will stick to his word and vote to evict Jillian.  I also expect him to go after safety if it’s avaiable again tonight.  He votes for Jillian to leave and Cody will be delivering death rays at him.  If he votes for Christmas to leave there will likely be a tie and Cody gets to deliver the end to his week that he hopes for which is send Christmas out. Honestly, I don’t think either one leaving tonight makes much of a difference of where the current game is other than Cody or Paul being the victor for the evening.  Christmas staying was much more important prior to breaking her foot.  By the end of week 1 we do have a separation down the middle of the house as far as votes go.  What’s more important is that as for ‘alliances’ this season is really void of any at the moment.  We’ve not seen one final two deal, no handshakes, just a lot of vote wheeling and dealing. This next week we should see some serious discussions about who wants to team up with who. 

 

This brings me to Paul.  Paul came in strong and up to the day of the veto he was playing very well.  Friendly, likable, sociable, and houseguest genuinely like him and the entertainment value he brings to the house.  Paul amazed me with how well he handled the veto, nomination, and temptation.  People are confiding in him which is a great sign!  Dom admitted on the feeds that she is an engineer but only to Paul.  Kevin reveals he took the 25k but only to Paul.  There is a funnel of information that benefits Paul being piped directly to him and that’s a great thing right now.  After the injury and threat of Christmas leaving because of her foot he began to campaign a little to vigorously.  I would have liked him to chill a lot more and let people come to him seeking his input but instead he begins delivering facts and perceptions that are in many cases unsolicited.  Several people begin to comment about it and that’s a problem.  He may be untouchable this first 3 weeks but that time will end and he shouldn’t be acting like he is.  By Monday he was telling people he had a master plan and they should throw HOH to him but not sharing any of the details.  Um, isn’t that what Cody just did?  Pump your brakes Paul.  You were in a great spot don’t turn the radar back on yourself because you want to be seen as the puppeteer character in the broadcasts.  There is more than one path to that label and none get you there by way of eviction the second your safety expires.

 

With all that said, I feel like this is actually a great week for Paul to win HOH.  He has a lot of allies at the moment.  Has no alliance and needs to make one sooner than later.  The bonus being that he cannot be nominated the week after the HOH if he wins this week because he has one more week of safety after that.  If he saves Christmas she will ride hard for him.  Kevin and Paul have this bromance happening that many of us find hilarious and most of the HG’s enjoy a well.  Bet you can guess which two do not.  With Paul’s power of protection there is no other time until final 4 do you have that kind of guarantee in this house.  After an HOH week the outgoing HOH is always a talking point as a target unless their own alliance has power.  Since we really have no alliances, Paul has safety the next week (week 3) and all winners need a resume.  This is a position you want to be in if you are going to try for an HOH.   This would be the one for Paul.  The problem is Paul ran around telling those who want to vote for Christmas to stay that they should let him have HOH.  

 

Paul needed to stay on the low key radar he began with earlier this week.  Just stop pushing for it.  Bring back subtle relaxed mentioning of things when asked Paul.  I wouldn’t be unhappy or have any problem with a Paul HOH week 2.  Go for it!  The truth of the matter is depending on how this vote plays out tonight we could have 13 HG’s holding on for dear life trying to grab this HOH to guarantee their safety.  Alex and Jessica will be fighting to the death either way the vote goes.  Alex’s target may change if Jillian goes home and everyone should be considering this.  So many are so caught up in securing the votes for who they want to stay I haven’t seen near the amount of discussions about this as we should be seeing.  This morning Kevin points this out during several conversations. Until today fans (LF) have been counting on Kevin’s vote swaying towards keeping Jillian but this morning he told Matt, Raven, and Elena he was going to vote with them.  Kevin is the kind of player when he does finally say something specific you should listen because most of the time in this house he avoids game talk and when it does include him he is very noncommittal.  We see this with he and Christmas this morning.  She is earnestly trying to get him to confirm he will vote to keep her and he changes the subject and avoids a direct response the entire time.  

 

We do have Raven and Matt as well as Paul 100% on lock for voting to evict Jillian.  If Kevin and Josh (who told LF on camera yesterday) both vote to evict Jillian that is 5 votes now against Jillian.  My guess is that Elena is a lock but Matt is going to have to choose between the women in his life when this vote happens.  People beleive Dom is on board to save CHristmas but I am a bit suspect.  You will rarely find me spilling tea early after nom’s or veto about who is voting where because it honestly holds no weight until we hit Thursday morning.  Before eviction day the votes can change 20 x’s.  I don’t get too invested in what people are saying before this but I do watch what they are doing and how they behave along the way.  Jessica, Alex, and Ramses are the locked voted for Jillian to stay.  The problem is Cody miraculously appears downstairs this morning discussing with individuals like Kevin and Josh about how they need to be voting. LOL.  Now the RealiTea is they see exactly what we see in this moment.  Josh and Kevin even say after Cody leaves to various people re:  Cody “You haven’t talked to me all week!”  Terreible game play as usual Cody.

 

Christmas has attempted to guilt Jason into voting with her since her injury was his fault in her eyes.  Jason isn’t buying what she’s selling. He has flip flopped all over the hosue like a fish out of water mostly becasue he trusts Alex.  

 

Christmas tells the cameras she’s confident it will be a 9-3 vote.  My impression is Paul is believing the same.  I don’t think it will be.  I think it will be a 7-5 vote to keep Christmas.  It would still be a 6-6 vote if they hadn’t swayed Josh.  Can you believe after the way this week began this entire outcome tonight comes down to Josh?  The RealiTea is he is the swing vote.  He has told us he is keeping Christmas.  We saw some teetering and many have seen him running to both sides professing his commitment to their cause but that was a planned approach.  Not sure the smartest one but that’s what it was.  

 

The good news is Josh doesn’t care for Cody.  No one but Cody, Alex, Jessica, and Jillian of course want Cody to get his way.  I feel like Christmas’ greatest advantage going in to tonight is that people are so over Cody’s tyrannical reign of HOH they will vote against what he wants just because he wants it.  I feel as though most of the house will not be surprised if Christmas does in fact stay.  What will stir up immediate feelings is the numbers of the votes.  We head directly into the next HOH and if things don’t fall how people anticipate this could be one heck of a battle for a week 2 HOH.  Kevin will be the only one alongside Christmas (who likely will not be able to play) that wont hang in for the long haul.  It’s sounding like an endurance comp since BB has announced that the HOH competition will be shown live on the feeds.  This leads me to believe that we will have battle of wills and Cody will be benched with nothing to do but stare at everyone…pretty much what he always does. 

 

At the end of week one the players in the best positions in the house are:  Raven/Matt, (although Jillian has told the cameras that she’s coming for Matt).  Kevin because everyone loves him and he can play off any backlash that may be directed at him if people feel he didn’t vote how they wanted.  Finally, Dominique.  Everyone generally likes and respects her.  Josh has made it clear he wants to work with Christmas, Paul, and Dominique. Mark wants to weork with her.  Paul and Christmas have done the damage control and emotional management with Josh the best they can but whenever he repeats who he trusts and wants to work with he does not get confirmatio form anyone.  Less pressure more stroking because they understand how to manage him.  Cody on the other hand just wants to bully people into doing what he expects without earning any respect or loyalty.  In this game anything can happen.  I expect tonight to be a roller coaster ride, just like this first week.   Make sure to hold on to your tea cup until next time when I follow up after tonight’s live eviction and HOH competition with the next RealiTea Bites update!