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Welcome back to BB OTT blogger Big_BrotherHBIC, who will be contributing to the Morty's TV Fan Forums as a Blogger for Season 19.  Big_BrotherHBIC isn't afraid to let you know her opinions and we are excited for her to share her perspective on this 19th season of the game, featuring all new Houseguests!  This is a two way street, though, so when Big_BrotherHBIC tells you want she thinks, feel free to reply back with your own reactions to the game - and her posts!

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June 28, 2017

Welcome to The RealiTea Bites! I willl be sharing the tea all season long.  You wil get facts, stats, details and my personal perceptions of the players, strategies, moves, social game, and potential longevity as the weeks unfold.  My goal is to both inform you and hopefully give you something new to chew on.  In turn, fan feedback can help me look for things perhaps I am not seeing and broaden the vision that we all have of this season and the houseguests we will be watching for the next 3 months vie for 500k and the coveted title of Winner!  I’m arriving to the party fashionably late so bare with me as I give you a window into my point of view of the players and predictions prior to the premier on Wednesday!  

 

As we all know prior to the first episode of each new Big Brother season and the feeds going live all we (fans) have to assess the players on are cast bios and preseason interviews.  Small bites of the personalities and defined archetypes the show has cast the new houseguests to represent.  In my experience this is actually a sound starting point.  These previews provide fans enough individual information to draw some conclusions about the longevity of an individual player in the game each season if you are assessing the valuable information.  So here we go! 

 

 

For Big Brother 19 we know of 16 HG’s.  There is some chatter that Paul may be joinig the cast, and thanks to Victor and his inability to keep a secret it’s looking like this is a RealiTea.  Victor posted on IG that his boy is likely going to be4 a part of the new season earlier this week. Since we don’t have confirmation yet, let’s focus on what we know!  It appears to be equal playing field with 8 women and 8 men entering the game.  Now, this is Big Brother, so expect the unexpected.  As I checked out the cast photos what struck me initially was it was like one of the Morph challenge photo's merging the casts of Southern Charm Savannah and The Real World. I don't share this as a dig. I was pleasantly surprised and feel as though this a more diversified cast than in recent years. This perception is based both on the diversity of their physical appearance and the broadened age range of the group. We will come back to the discussion of the casts ages a little later.  

 

After checking everyone out across a myriad of platforms the next thing that struck me as unusual is the level of self awareness this cast presents during the interviews.  Look, we are all fans of the show.  We know there are certain people that perform better in this social experiment than others.  However, nowadays there is no shortage of people you come across in your own day to day life that lack self awareness.  This cast is the most self aware of their weaknesses and areas of the game that will challenge their patience the most.  Now, how they apply that knowledge we will wait to see.  But my initial reaction is the more you know about yourself the better advantage you can have in a game like this.  I’m going to get go ahead and spill the tea on my top contenders on up front.  Then I will share my impressions of each player and hopefully that will give you the logic behind my perceptions going into the first episode. These are strictly players who in my experience combined with preseeason info are most likely, in my opinion (IMO) to make it to the final 6 and have the best shot at winning. That doesn’t mean they are the players I like although there is some crossover between the two.

 

Top 3 Female Players of the season:

 

Raven

Alex

Jillian (with conditions)

 

Top Male Players of the season:

Cameron

Jason

Matt

 

There you have it!  Based on what I know from background information, personality types, game knowledge, and general personal information these are the players I predict have the greatest odds of making it to the second half of the game and will lead the race to being crowned the winner of BB19!  Raven and Cameron are the strongest front runners if we narrow it down to statistics but we will talk about why I make that prediction a little later.  Ironically, I had already established both of them as two of the front runners before I did a little number crunching this morning.  I did a little digging since so many peope were debating the age of this cast.   You will see why by the time today’s blog has concluded.  For now let me give you what conclusions I have drawn from what information we had available. 

 

I know you must be scratching your head at a couple of these selections.  Keep in my mind that this is also based on my knowledge of the game as well as comparing them to the other players we know are in the game.  This list isn’t the America’s Favorite HG category.  My predictions are based strictly on how I think they will likely play, who they are playing against and their overall strengths and weaknesses heading into tonight’s premier.  I’m as curious as you will be to see how my opinions change once we are able to see the live interactions of this group of characters.  

 

Cameron is our token nerd.  He boasts that the difference between himself and Steve/Ian is that he has a much more evolved social game.  He lived with 7 partying guys in college, likes some extreme sports, and seems overall a pretty active fellow although certainly not the muscle guy archetype.  If this holds true then he could be a force to be reckoned with.  Cameron is a true LF fan, a very strategic minded young man (chess, rubix cubes, and yeah he’s a scientist).  He’s been in a relationship for 7 years, has demonstrated some sense of humor, and if he is as self aware as he seems these are all valuable assets in making it to the end of this game.  The one analogy he shared that made the strongest impression on me when talking about his planned game play was his analogy about the game strategy in relationship to  playing chess.  Cameron demonstrates that he understands the game unfolds in three layers. In the beginning get to know your players, form relationships.  In the middle of the game you move pieces around and strategically influence the game.  If you are successful then by the end you win the comps. That is a sound analysis of how this game can be won.  If he can deflect the #nerdherd label and develop his relationships with HG he will have a very good chance to execute that strategy. Now winning comps at the end is the toughest challenge but you can also develop an alliance where you improve the odds of those final comp wins playing in your favor.  

 

Next up I have Jason.  I know many of you probably never thought I would pick the rodeo clown.  Trust me neither did I!  Until I listened to his interviews.  Jason is 37, one of the older male members of the cast.  He’s married and has a 2 year old son.  Jason is going into the game blind.  Now, that in itself made me scratch my head a little.  Jason has never seen the show-here's our BB19 Paul. What stuck with me, is his approach in life "I worry about where I am. I don't worry about where I'm not." 

He clearly is not a LF because naming James Huling, even with a reasonable qualifier, as his favorite BB HG is the same as death like  'The American' (George Clooney) building the gun that's destined to kill you. But bear with me for a moment. 

 

I was pleasantly surprised. I was primed to not like Jason as a player just based on my experience with past players but...Jason may be the odd duck with quirky personality like Renny or Chicken George that we find some connection to and find ourselves cheering for. His laid back mindset combined with charismatic personality may serve him well. I like his sense of humor. He boasts himself to be a great storyteller. True or not he needs to keep his finger on the pulse of the house because being that HG that has a story for everything rarely helps your game. The advantage he has is-he doesn’t know the game.  Just like Paul (BB18) and Justin (BBOTT) the player who has no idea what to expect is less threatening than those self proclaimed super fans.  He will be less threatening and if he learns as quickly as Paul he can in fact be one of the greatest threats of the game.  He is a player I will watch carefully the first two weeks.  If he survives the first two evictions he is in a great spot at least to make it to the second half of the game.  Once you are guaranteed to make just how people interact with you shifts.  

 

Finally, my last pick for the top three male players this season was much more difficult to narrow down.  I had to take my personal preferences out of the equation and then it was much easier to land on Matt.  Now stay with me here because his interview left me with one word…TOAST!  He is dry and as boring as toast. Plain toast. These players generally land in the middle. Survive the initial blood in the water but when its time in the mid game to send people who aren't competitors nor floaters packing it's this archetype that falls victim. The shift came as I reviewed all the other players and did a little more digging for information about Matt. There had to be more.  Apparently there is.  

 

Matt is a guy’s guy.  The frat guy.  He doesn’t come off physically as the threat that let’s say Cody and one of my favorite personalities wise like Mark.  Cody has too many annoyances that will likely work against him. I see him as a player combination of Monte (not as extreme) AND Morgan (in bed at 10 pm every night).  He will be rigid, inlfexible, and off putting becasue of his lack of social game. Cody’s archetype  likes his routines and based on his background has a tendency to expect people to folow him without the finesse to entice him to follow him.  Whereas, Mark I actually really like, does he remind anyone else of Ronnie from The Jersey Shore.  The meat head teddy bear?  But when you look at the other 6 males, Josh will be gone early(Devin anyone?), Ramses will be his own worst enemy while having the right idea I see him stumbling to execute his knowledge.  Ramses will be labeled a traitor sloating info to all sides and that lack of stealth technique will likely get him in hot water. Kevin is great and I was thrilled to see this archetype return but I know this game well enough to know that historically this older player is taken out in the first half.  That leaves me with Matt.  

 

Matt is less physically intimidating than the males.  Cody and Mark will be seen as greater physical threats creating a couple shields for him to lingere behind. Word on the street is Matt has a reputation as a total flirt and charming the ladies.  Matt does know some about the game and as long as he doesn’t rub people the wrong way or align with the wrong player he can coast right into that floater mold and ease into the second half of the game.  I had very strong feelings about the other 5 guys so by process of elimination Matt was the most reasonable guy to round out my top 3 males this season.  In all honesty I like Mark.  My gut tells me he will show a soft side disarming some but he’s young and big which suggest he will fall in with a group where he positions himself in the hirarchy where he is 2nd or 3rd in line as a threat creating a target that played differently may have been avoided.  

 

Moving on to the females, SM has been swirling with comments about the fact that the ages are much more diverse amongst the women than the men.  There were a couple surprises between what I thought when I saw the fist cast photos and read the bios versus my perceptions after watching videos and checking out vrious interviews the female HG served up preseason.  I didn’t think I would like Christmas and confident she would make it to the second half of the game.  Megan was one of the first I felt will go out early.  Remember like Vanessa and Alex (BBOTT) you can have all the right ideas and skill as far as strategic knowledge this game has layers and you can’t be heavy in one area and empty in others.  The best players and ususally the winners are able to balance their assets and skills.  One asset may be slightly stronger but they must possess all three.  Social game, strategic moves, and competition wins.  IMO, the social and strategic play must be relatively equal.  While winning must be purposeful and intentional.  You don’t have to win a ton of comps to be the best player or desrve the win.  You do have to win some things.  You have to know when to win and when to lose.  Megan, while I‘ve hear many express they feel she has the right ideas and is a gamer my prediction is she  is going to piss people off.  She will be the downfall of her game playing too hard too fast. We all know the type. The players that sound too good always are.  Especially if she shares some of her cut throat stories with other HG from the get go.  She's smart and seems ruthless and in this house that female player rarely lasts to halfway point.  I know a lot of people are excited about her and Christmas but I’m just going to get her name out of the way.  I genuinely like Christmas and I think she will likely remain a fan favorite for a while. Her age and experience will equally benefit and harm her.  She is going to be a target. I hate to say that, but come on we know this to be true.   My top three female players to make it to final 6 and potentially win the season are Raven, Jillian, and Alex.  Raven being my #1.  She is the youngest of the females.  She has been through some difficult life experiences so she has some thicker skin and is resilient.  This tells me if she does in fact find herself in a sticky situation she will dance her way out of it.  

 

Raven is a dance teacher from Arkansas.  Another check in her positives column is that Raven is the youngest of the female players and based on the last three seasons that is a huge factor.  She says that her strategy is to lay low off radar, pull strings quietly and wait to make power move.  Again a smart pregame mindset.  She’s bubbly and sweet but as a dancer may be a double threat both physical and social. Raven has an intestinal condition that requires a pacemaker.  Medically if this doesn’t work against her then she’s a fighter and sees everything as her 2nd chance at life.  

 

In Raven’s interviews she was smart enough to say "I'm not going to say 'no showmances' because that seems to always be the people who end up in one. Bravo Raven, Bravo!  Stay out of a showmance. The negatives that can hurt her chances are the pet peeve people not washing plates and admittedly being loud.  Let the dish thing roll off your back like water on a duck and be self aware about being loud ensuring it doesn’t rub people the wrong way and those things she can overcome.  Stay out of a showmance!  Maybe have a flirtmance but attaching yourself to the wrong person and letting someone else add elements to your game that aren’t purposeful can be toxic. Of all the interviews Raven said the Smartest thing I've heard anyone on this cast say is..."the best alliances are the ones you can't see."  The pace maker thing is a toss up.  People could see it as a weakness and want to target her early, smelling blood in the water.  But, on the flip side people can wrongly categorize her as an easy player to take out later and those are the ones that somehow continue to be pushed back week after week until suddenly its finals and she kicks some butt.  Again, as I stated earier based on facts and numbers her greatest advantage is she is the youngest female on the cast.  I will explain that in a few moments.

 

Next on my top three is Alex.  Like Matt, this selection came down to process of elimination.  Megan will play too hard.  Christmas is going to be seen as a threat.  Dominique is a tad too arrogant and her abrasive personality will wear on others, Jessica, ugh she is my least favorite and while I like Elena I just don’t see her winning the votes necessary to make it to the coveted winners seat plus I am 99.9999% convinced she will find herself in a showmance.  Alex is a recruit.  She defines herself as a Fan but didn’t submit an application on her own she was found on social media.  Her favorite player is Janelle.  I say go big or go home Alex.  Big things come in little packages and she could very well be the surprise of the season. Alex is spunky but not over the top.  She understands enough about the game to know she needs to align with some strong guys-becasue as she said in her interview “guys make it to the end”. She needs to stay out of a showmance in order not to derail from the path that will likely lead her to the second half of the game.  She also knows if she makes it to the end, take the girl, because if she sits next to the guy the guy usually wins.  Nicole BB18 was the exception to a lot of rules.  IMO BB18 was one of those seasons where the females of the cast were very immature and Paul played a much better game than Nicole. As we all know too well in more recent years the best game doesn’t always win at the end.  I’m excited to see what Alex brings to the season. 

 

On to my final player in the top 3 women draft of my season’s picks.  Jillian.  I really like Jillian.  Jillina has to find a way like Matt to blend in. Here’s why…she is the second youngest of the female players and in her bio and interviews she was forgettable.  I know you are rereading that to make sure you heard me correctly.  In the first half of this game being forgettable is a good thing. She is somewhat athletic, she loves to rope and wall climb.  She’s in sales so she knows how to deliver both a hard and soft sell to the other HG’s.  She admires Danielle Donato’s game which tells me that she does know BB.  If Jillian sticks to her pregame plan to come in, play nice, make some kind of alliance with one guy in the house where they exchange information about the girls and guys with each other without being figured out in the first half she can fly under the radar just long enough to come out swinging.  Thats the game I love to watch!  Influence things without anyone knowing you are doing so. Play a great social game on all sides of the house, show them you have some assets without making yourself a target and then as she says, later in the game reveal herself to be the villain.  At that point she can make some big game moves to secure her spot in the final four.  If she sticks to that agenda and stays true to herself she could find herself right where she wants to be on finale night.  

 

Now many of you may be wondering why I added a note (conditional) when I listed Jillian as my top 3 females of the season. Maybe you forgot because this is one long post but I am going to tell you anyway.   This plays into possible negatives in her game.  Jillian revealed in one of her interviews that she has lost 50 pounds since January.  She had surgery to help with the weight loss. Way to go girl!  That’s an accomplishment and shows she can do things when she puts her mind to it.  But…in this house, in this game, with pretty, fit, skimpily cladded bikini women surrounding you all day we know that insecurities can get the best of the strongest females.  This is very recent for her.  What I know from a psychological perspective is sometimes the weight loss period of change can be faster than the mindset change.  Part of making a healthy lifestyle change is developing a new internal conversation with yourself.  If she hasn’t done as much work on her inner voice as she has outer body this environment can shine a very bright light on your insecurities.  Paulie…need I say more?  Meech?  Audrey?  Captain Camo?  My only concern with Jillian is that being in the house with 15 other people can easily put herself under a microscope if she hasn’t actively dealt with her own self image.  No one wants a repeat of Krissy’s ‘poor me’ mantra all season long.  Not the fans nor the HG’s.  My hope is she is ready for all that she will be faced with and rise to the challenge by focusing on her purpose for being there.  To WIN!

 

Now that I have reviewed my favorites to win and briefly shared some of the players I think will leave early or don’t have the tools to make it through this marathon let’s touch quickly on the age factor I mentioned.  I heard a lot of preseason chatter about this being an older cast.  People had a lot to say and it seemed as though the idea that especially the women are a little older fans were excited about.  Here’s the problem with that, I ran the numbers.  

 

I am a numbers person.  The average age of the casts between BB17, BB18, BBOTT, and BB19 there is a minor shift in the median age of the women from last season BB18 to this season.  However, its similar to season BB17.  Does it matter?  Some fans think so.  Now my feeling is that the ladies cast on BB18 collectively regardless of age were immature.  My hope is BB19 hosts a more mature cast even though the median age mirrors BB17.  What I did find when running the numbers of total cast median ages, breaking down male versus female median ages is that in all seasons, BB17, BB18, and BBOTT the youngest cast member not only won but with the exception of BBOTT both final two players in the summer seasons of BB were the youngest cast members each time.  Steve 22, won BB17 and he was the youngest of the males and of the cast.  Liz and Julia 23 were the youngest females and Liz 23 made it to final 2.  BB 18 we had Nicole 23 and Paul 23.  Nicole and Meech were the youngest females (23) and Nicole won.  Paul was the youngest male.  In BBOTT Morgan 22 was in fact the 2nd youngest female only one younger was Whitney who made it very far as well. Danielle was also one of the youngest cast at 23 and look where she landed! Did you realize this?  What this means is the age of the houseguests and life experience discussions people are having are mute in the end.  Since 2015 not only the winner but the final 2 of each Big Brother season has been the youngest members of the cast.  WOW!  I had not put that together until I decided to take a look at the seasons and compare them to BB19 since it was something I’ve heard a lot of comment about.  Ironically, by the time I did this today I had already finalized my top 3 picks of the genders but I did giggle a bit to realize the youngest players in BB19 on both sides of the gender lines were already on my lists.  Just some RealiTea Bites about the recent trend of winners at least since 2015.  I will be interested to find out if this rings true by the end of BB19.  If it does I may need to add another column to how I evaluate players moving forward.  There we have it ladies and gentlemen.  Today is the day we all get to meet the HG and the game for us begins.  Remember we’ve missed the first days in the house and feeds do not go live until tomorrow night.  I look forward to getting acquainted with the new HG and discovering how ‘temptations’ will alter the game as we know it!  Until next time, I’ve enjoyed sipping some tea with you and look forward to an exciting summer ahead for us all!

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